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Semiconductor market recovers, memory shipments exceed expectations

By Hotenda

South Korea's financial media "Money Today" reported that the industry began to raise the forecast of semiconductor shipments, Samsung Electronics' third quarter DRAM shipment growth rate increased from the original 15% to about 20%, Nand flash memory shipment growth rate It is also raised from the original 1 digit to about 10%.

Semiconductor industry stakeholders expect that semiconductor prices this year have probably fallen to a minimum, inventory is almost exhausted, NAND flash memory has begun to pick up, DRMA demand will slowly recover.

The person also pointed out that Google will restart large-scale investment in European data centers (about 4 trillion won), and Samsung Electronics and Apple have launched new smart phones. Intel and AMD have also launched a new generation of CPUs (central processing units). Both help to increase memory requirements.

Not only the industry has a positive view, but the “Import and Export Price Index” announced by the Bank of Korea on the 17th is also quite optimistic. Last month, the DRAM export price index (64.3) was 2.9% higher than the previous month, which was the first rebound since August 2018. Bank of Korea analyzed that due to Japan's tightening of export restrictions in July, many companies are concerned about DRAM production problems, stimulating semiconductor demand, and the impact of semiconductor companies such as Micron to reduce production.

On the other hand, the "fixed transaction price" closely related to the revenue of memory semiconductor companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix has also begun to fall. According to DRAMeXchange data from the market research company, the average price of DDR4 8Gb (Gigabit) for computers last month was $2.94, which is the first time this year. NAND flash memory, based on 128Gb MLC, fell to a low of 3.93 in June this year, began to rise to 4.01 US dollars in July, and slightly increased to 4.11 US dollars in August.

Although the securities industry has slightly different views on the timing of the recovery of the economy, it is optimistic about the prospects of the semiconductor industry. Kim Ron-Peng, a researcher at the Korea Industrial Research Institute, expects that semiconductor prices will remain warmer or higher for some time than the short-term incentives to stabilize prices.

Nomura Securities predicted in its recent report that NAND flash memory inventory will be exhausted from the second quarter, DRAM inventory will be at its highest level in the second quarter, but in the fourth quarter, NAND flash memory will be restored in V shape, DRAM It will experience the lowest point in the first quarter of next year.

IBK investment securities analyst Jin Yunhao also predicted that the demand for servers that have been sluggish is improving in DRAM, while the inventory and prices of NAND flash memory have begun to stabilize, and prices after the fourth quarter are expected to rise.

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