Under the Sino-US trade war, the fluctuation of the memory market continued to be concerned. The research institute Jibang Technology recently held the "Compuforum2019: The Future of the Data Economy" seminar. Senior Associate Wu Yating estimated that the overall DRAM sales will be reduced by 29.3% this year. Overall NANDFlash performance will decline by 27.3% compared to last year, but both will resume positive growth next year.
Looking forward to the memory market, Wu Yating said that regardless of the oversupply of DRAM and NANDFlash this year, the price will continue to fall, and the annual performance will also grow negative. It is estimated that DRAM sales will decrease by 29.3% and NANDFlash will decrease by 27.3%.
In terms of price, the demand for servers and smartphones has fallen, resulting in rapid consumption and rising inventory. This year, the oversupply of DRAM has expanded compared with last year, and NAND has experienced a fierce competition, and the shift from 2DNAND to different degrees of 3DNAND has caused a substantial increase in supply. Although the current decline is slightly convergent, the accumulated stocks last year are still high, and the prices are still falling. For the whole year, Wu Yating estimated that DRAM prices fell by nearly 50%, and NAND was nearly 40%.
However, as demand gradually returns to temperature and price changes bring out inventory replenishment momentum, Jibang expects storage prices to rebound in 2020. In terms of technology development, Wu Yating pointed out that the existing memory faces the physical limit of continuous shrinking of the process. At present, Intel, Samsung and Micron and other memory manufacturers are investing in the development of next-generation solutions such as MRAM, PRAM and RRAM.
For example, Intel's server product Optane is based on 3DxPoint and has DIMMs that are fully compatible with server modules on the market. For motherboard designers, the same slot can be freely replaced with a server memory module or Optane solution. .
However, the next-generation memory has not been scaled up and standardized, and the cost is still high. Wu Yating believes that the next-generation memory and existing solutions have their own advantages and disadvantages, and the key to the next generation's ability to increase the volume is still the price. At present, DRAM and NAND are very cheap, and the next generation has no room for development. It is expected that the price of DRAM and NAND will recover in 2020, and the next generation will have the opportunity to increase the volume. She also stressed that next-generation memory is not considered to replace existing solutions, but rather coexist with DRAM and NAND in some end-product markets.